Since I angered some Chads on /r/investing here's why I think China is the next "big short".
Fellow idiots, I posted this comment which seems to have angered the highly sophisticated /investing community. I don't mind being downvoted but at least provide some counter arguments if you're going to be a dick. So in the pursuit of truth and tendies for all, I have prepared some juicy due diligence (DD) for WSB Capital on why China is on the verge of collapse. TL;DR at the bottom. Point 1: Defaults in China have been accelerating aggressively, and through July 2019, 274 real estate developers filed for bankruptcy, up 50% over last year. A bonus? Many Chinese state controlled banks have been filing for bankruptcy as well. Just google "china bank defaults" or something similar. Notice how many articles there are from 2019? When the banking system fails, everything else usually fails too. Point 2:The RMB has depreciated significantly. Last time this happened, in 2015-2016, there was a significant outflow of foreign invested capital. According to the IIF, outflows reached $725bn due to the currency depreciation.. This time is different why again? I have heard some arguments why there will be less outflow this time, but I struggle to buy them. Point 3: Despite wanting to operate like a developed economy, China still has not been able to shrug off the middle income trap. Their GDP per capita is comparable to countries we normally associated with being developing/emerging markets. Tangentially related to point 10. Point 4: China is an export-dependent economy, with about 20% of their exports contributing towards their GDP. Less exporting means less GDP, less consumption (because businesses make less money, they pay people less, who in turn spend less), which has a greater effect on GDP than any declines in exports would have at face value. Guess what? Chinese exports dropped 1% in August, and August imports dropped -1%, marking the 5th month this year of negative m/m export growth.. Point 5: Business confidence has been weak in China - declining at a sustained pace worse than in 2015. When businesses feel worse, they spend less, invest less in fixed assets, hire less until they feel better about the future. Which takes me to my next point. Point 6:Fixed asset investment in China has declined 30 percentage points since 2010. While rates are low, confidence is also low, and they are sitting on a record amount of leverage, which means they simply will not be able to afford additional investment. Point 7: They are an extremely levered economy with a total debt to GDP ratio of over 300%, per the IIF, which also accounts for roughly 15% of global total fucking debt. Here's an interview with someone else talking about it too. Point 8: Their central bank recently introduced a metric fuckton of stimulus into their economy. This will encourage more borrowing....add fuel to the fire. Moreover, the stimulus will mechanically likely weaken the RMB even more, which could lead to even more foreign outflows, which are already happening, see next point. Point 9: Fucking LOTS of outflows this year. As of MAY, according to this joint statement, around 40% of US companies are relocating some portion of their supply chains away from mainland. This was in May. Since May, we have seen even more tariffs imposed, why WOULD companies want to stay when exporting to the US is a lot more expensive now? Point 10: Ignoring ALL of the points above, we are in a global synchronized slowdown, with many emerging market central banks cutting rates - by the most in a decade. Investors want safety, and safe-haven denominated assets are where we have seen a lot of flocking into recently. Things that can be considered safe-havens have good liquidity, a relatively stable economy, and a predictable political environment. Would love to hear opposing thoughts if you think China is a good buy. I am not against China, nor any other country for that matter, but I am against losing money (yes, wrong sub etc.), and I can not rationalize why anyone would be putting in a bid. TL;DR: the bubble is right in front of your face, impending doom ahead, short everything, fuck /investing. Edit, since you 'tards keep asking me how to trade this, there are a few trades that come to mind:
US treasuries still have room to run (before the autists say that's not yolo enough you could trade OTM calls on UST-linked ETFs, US govvie futures for gainz)
Sell SPX companies with big supply chain exposure and heavy cost of capital, buy their competitors without these features.
Open up apparel factories in Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, and sell to the US.
Buy soybeans assuming farmers get a bailout from US
I am sure there are plenty of China based ETFs which could be played, DYOR.
Short any US listed company with mainland China domicile. If shit REALLY hits the fan between US/China, there are levers that US Govt. can pull to fuck them.
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Stocks to Watch: Infosys, Yes Bank, Vodafone Idea, Tata Steel, Adani Gas
https://preview.redd.it/9q74fr8w1ha41.jpg?width=600&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b3d1f4c9df30fa6db2df833395c391c1084792d0 Infosys: Information technology services provider Infosys Ltd declared its third quarter earnings after market hours on Friday. The company’s net profit for the third quarter ended December stood at ₹4,457 crore, up nearly 11% quarter-on-quarter. Also, the IT major’s audit committee found no evidence of financial impropriety or executive misconduct against its CEO Salil Parekh following a detailed probe into whistleblower allegations. Vodafone Idea: In view of two-year moratorium granted by the department of telecommunications (DoT) on deferred payment liabilities towards spectrum payments to telecom companies, Vodafone Idea has decided to utilize ₹2,826 crore earmarked for the same against repayment of loans and redemption of non-convertible debentures. Yes Bank: The board of directors of Yes Bank on Friday approved raising of funds up to ₹10,000 crore through a mix of equity and debt and decided not to proceed with the offer from Erwin Singh Braich-SPGP Holdings. Also, Yes Bank’s co-promoter Rana Kapoor and his family-run firms have completely exited the bank, taking their stake in the institution to nil, thereby losing all control and voting rights in the bank. Edelweiss Financial Services: The Enforcement Directorate (ED) on Friday issued summons and called for information from Edelweiss group and its Chairman Rashesh Shah in a ₹2000 crore Foreign Exchange Management Act (FEMA) case. However, the company on 12 January in a filing with exchanges said that Edelweiss has no relationship with Capstone Forex and all allegations of FEMA violations are false. Reliance Home Finance: Anil Ambani lead Reliance Home Finance on Sunday said an independent forensic audit, mandated by lenders, has found no fraud, embezzlement or diversion and siphoning of funds in the company that is seeking debt resolution. In a statement, the company said the audit made “no adverse findings” on the quantum and end-use of lending. Adani Gas: The gas distributor has sought a perpetual loan of $350 million from its promoters to finance expansion, according to a Mint report. The Adani group company has approached three promoter group entities—Adani Rail Infra Pvt. Ltd, Adani Infra India Ltd, and Adani Properties Pvt Ltd—for the loan. Adani Gas Ltd will pay an interest of 9% for the loan, and spend about $50 million of the $350 million for retail distribution. Tata Steel: The company on Friday announced that Tata Steel Netherlands Holdings B.V. (TSNHBV), a 100% subsidiary of Tata Steel Limited, has executed agreements for the refinancing of its bank debt. TSNBHV has raised term loan facilities of EUR 1.75 billion from 19 banks. This represents a reduction of EUR 500 million versus the external debt outstanding in Tata Steel Europe as of Mar 2019, enabling the standalone European business to have a more robust balance sheet. Hindustan Construction Company: Lenders of Ajit Gulabchand’s Hindustan Construction Co. Ltd. (HCC) on Friday said they were going to carve out about ₹2,100 crore of debt on the construction firm to a third-party-controlled special purpose vehicle; certain arbitration awards and claims will also move to the SPV and will significantly deleverage the company and address its asset-liability mismatch. Lupin: The pharma company on Saturday said it has received two observations from the US health regulator following the inspection of its Nagpur manufacturing facility. A prior approval inspection was carried out by the United States Food and Drug Administration at the company’s Nagpur oral solid dosage manufacturing facility between January 6-10, 2020, Lupin said in a filing to BSE. Auto Stocks: Passenger vehicles sales declined 1.24% year-on-year in December to 235,786 units as manufacturers decided to cut production to match subdued retail demand and reduce inventory of Bharat Stage -VI emission norms compliant vehicles. The fall was largely due to an 8.4% decline in passenger car sales to 142,126 units. Watch our Stock Market Target Calls Quality, Track sheet – Click Here or Subscribe us for Stock Market Trading >>>>Stock Cash Tips
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[Serious] Freelancers of /r/india, how are you dealing GST?
While GST has increased the exemption limit to 20 lakhs. It has also made it mandatory for many people who didn't need to register for service tax earlier to enroll for GST. (And there are financial penalties for those not complying even out of ignorance.)
Anyone having clients in/receiving payments from multiple states.
Anyone working for clients abroad(directly or via online marketplaces like upwork/fiverr etc.) and earning forex.(Import/export is also considered inter-state trade under GST)
People selling stuff online on ebay/amazon etc.(There was a thread about this recently)
The OST KIT⍺ Phase II program is now two weeks underway, and we’re thrilled to see such a diverse selection of POC projects. We’ve already covered 42 projects in this series of blog posts: Check out Part 1, Part 2 and Part 3. . Just as a reminder: We’ve accepted 142 projects out of more than 250 applications. Developer teams providing a successful POC submission will be rewarded with 50,000 $OST. There’s also a Grand Reward of 250,000 additional OST + an extra four reward categories, each with a prize of 25,000 additional OST. . Didn’t make the selection? Not to worry: Be the first to know when we’re launching Alpha III > https://goo.gl/PUeD41 . In today’s post we’re introducing projects 43 through 57: Enjoy! . SOURCE: https://medium.com/ostdotcom/14-more-osta2-projects-pt-4-b3592975a2f8 . NAMEFACE NameFace calls themselves the “Unsplash for editorial photos”: The company covers events and distributes visuals in real time through their international network of news outlets, bloggers, and social media creators. NameFace wants to build a tokenized marketplace for photographers and outlets. — United States . PLAYX PlayX (project name) is building a companion app to Twitch and YouTube to improve the engagement experience between the broadcaster and participant. Their app focuses on rewarding user engagement with broadcasters and brands. They hope to demonstrate a small number of features: Likes, Bounty questions, and donations leader-board. — Australia . LIFELINE Life Line’ is a Social Network Application, that wants to use Branded Tokens to gives users greater incentive to participate in the app. Its core functionality is to allow anyone to connect with other users around the world — in various fields of study — to get clear and concise answers to their questions. It aims to incentivize users to provide each other with critiques, tips and suggestions. — United States . TRADERVIET An only community that focuses on forex and cryptocurrency trading, investing and educating. It wants to create its own branded token to incentivize editors and users for contributing valuable content, commenting and sharing. TraderViet expects advertisers to pay with crypto for placements on their portal. — Vietnam . AUCTIONS Auctions wants to allow government and private organisations to invite third parties to pitch for assignments on a contract basis (called a “tender”). After a specified duration, the best tender will be chosen and all transactions related will be governed under their Branded Token, called AUN. Auctions wants to bring Blockchain into play in an effort to battle corruption. — India . INDOORA Indoora offers an accurate indoor positioning solution that provides the best way for end users to navigate inside large venues such as airports, shopping malls and exhibition centers through their mobile applications. The company is planning to use a Branded Token to integrate a reward program on top of their indoor location services. Users will be able to earn tokens upon completing location-based micro tasks inside venues and spend them in affiliated stores. — Turkey . TREESREWARDS A reward points app for a chain of cannabis dispensaries (Trees). The company draws parallels between McDonald’s Monopoly and its own platform. Trees has 7 or 8 locations on Vancouver Island, and is “growing fast with the impending total legalization of cannabis” across the country. Their POC will focus on creating a sustainable rewards system. — Canada . ERC20 DROID The project currently is a financial portfolio app that uses api’s to load in token values, and then help display graphs of your token portfolio. In the future rendition, Bryan would like to drop a ROBO token based on OST. Users would be able to exchange the ROBO token for investment advice or unlocking new features in the platform. — United States . KIDS READING PROGRAM The developer team behind this POC wants to incorporate a blockchain-based distributed database where the “BOOK” token will represent 1 minute worth of reading. A future website will provide Parents public access to view their children’s reading progress. — United States . GoCryptoMe GoCryptoMe™ is a web app that enables patrons to support the causes they care for using cryptocurrency. This introduces various advantageous factors (e.g. anonymity, no fees, etc.) which will improve the adoption rate. The web app will demonstrate an integration between OSTa API’S and the web app, allowing GoCryptoMe™ to base core functions upon the OST API’S. — Switzerland . KOBOGO Kobogo is a platform to book or host learning experiences, workshops and classes all over the world. Hosts will earn tokens for providing great educational experiences and thus increase their reputation. Learners will be able to pay for workshops with tokens and get workshop attendance certifications. — Portugal . COINTOSSBOT This ambitious team wants to demonstrate the ability of the OST KIT API to work within the FaceBook Messenger framework. Their project will demonstrate bridging transactions between FaceBook Messenger and OST KIT for use in various FB Messenger application and chatbot rewards. — United States . OWN A WORD This simple but nonetheless interesting POC is about creating an Ethereum-based web application which enables users to purchase their favorite words on the Ethereum blockchain. The team adds: “This is a very small project which will simply prove OSTa API’S are able to support simple, meaningful transactions.” — Spain . MEMBER TOKEN This project is aimed at creating a token economy for professional sports clubs and their (typically tens of thousands of) paying members. Features will include, amongst others, an online shop for discounted items, a P2P ticket exchange, and the use of tokens for the purpose of voting at a club’s general assembly). — United Kingdom . — End
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AdSense & other Ad network
Although this one is the most favourite in my list but I put this in #4 because its not as easy as other 3 above & it takes time to make money from Google AdSense.earn from adsense You need a website (which anyone can create now a days) & some tricks to bring the traffic on your website so that you can earn money from AdSense & other ad network. We have prepared one of the best course on AdSense earning which thousands of people in India & all over the world have used & now they are earning $200 to $1000+ per month.
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If you are serious about earning money online & you are a hard working guy who wants to make big income then affiliate marketing is for you. There is more scope for affiliate marketing than before because of the high growth of online shopping. There are hundreds of online merchants like Flipkart, Amazon, eBay, Clickbank, CJ etc. where you can signup & promote their products. In affiliate marketing, you are simply helping customers to buy the right product by creating a simple website & in return you can earn 4% to 20% commission.
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A virtual assistant is like a personal assistant who can earn money by working online for someone without being physically present. He can do variety of tasks like taking care of websites, counselling, writing & proofreading, publishing content, marketing, coding, website & app development, research etc. There are dozens of companies like HireMyMom, MyTasker, Zirtual, uAssistMe, 123Employee where you can signup for virtual assistant work.
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If you have idea of web design & development then you can make money online by taking order from the customers who are looking to develop their website.web design
If you don’t have idea then you can take the training & then start this because this field has got a great potential. Either you can promote this offline or create your own website and promote 0nline.
This is one of the most popular business online & if you have idea of SEO then you don’t have to worry about making money online.seo Companies spend hundreds to thousands of dollars every month on SEO so that their website can get on the top of Google for their business keywords. You need to take the training from a popular institute like SEOTrainingCourse.co.in where you can learn practical SEO tips & implement the same to rank different types of sites.
If you are a kind of person who want simple ways to earn money online & not mare than $200-$300 (Rs.15000) per month then you can become a micro worker. Here you can work on variety of different tasks like identifying an object, rating & commenting on different sites, visiting some websites, finding contact details, doing small research, writing small articles etc. There are many websites like mTurk, MicroWorker, SEOClerk, ClickWorker, GigWalk where you can work as a micro worker & earn extra income.
Seller on Fiverr
Fiverr is a place where you can do any service for $5. You can visit the website Fiverr.com & check which type of service you can do on Fiverr.make_money_with_fiverr You can become a seller on Fiverr & create your gigs where you can tell people that you can do so & so for $5. People see your gig & if they like it, they will order your service. Even if you complete 1 gig a day, you can make $150 or Rs.9000/- per month. Our training material on Fiverr can help you to grow your business & you can make great money from Fiverr.
You go anywhere or do anything, if you love shooting videos on all these occasions then there is a great scope for you to earn money from YouTube. All you need to do is upload the videos on YouTube & become a YouTube partner. For each & every view, you will get paid. Sometime if any of your videos become viral then you can make huge money.
Become an online seller
Online selling is not like traditional selling. Here you just need to become a seller on some of the top shopping portals like eBay, Amazon, Flipkart, SnapDeal etc. & list the products you want to sell. You can roam around your city & check for the best products you can sell on these sites. You need to try the best products that you can sell at lower than market price. Trust me, its easier than your thought. Only thing you need to do is take action.
Domain trading is another high profit business you can do online. But here you need some investment for buying the domain.’ You must be an expert OR you should get detailed knowledge before you start this business. You can buy domains from GoDaddy or other domain registrar for less than $10 & sell in future to the needy person for hundreds of dollars. Your skill here is to identify great domains that are not booked yet & companies in future can try to buy that domain.domain_trading When companies don’t find the domain of their choice, they contact the domain owner for the deal & it’s in your control to fix the price. You can even put your domains on auction so that people can buy directly at your desired price.
Like domain trading, website flipping is also a hot business to earn money online. Here you don’t deal with domains but websites. You have to create a website, work on it for 3-6 months or more so that you can start making money from the websites. After earning for 2-3 months, you can put that site on auction on Flippa & other platforms. You can easily get 15-20 times price of your monthly earning from that website. 14. Provide training & consultancy If you possess some good skills & love to teach then you can start a training or consultancy business online. You can provide training on English or any computer course, provide consultancy on vastu, any technical topic or if you are a doctor can provide consultancy for treatment etc. There are number of things you can teach online. You can promote your business by creating a website or a Facebook page or by placing ads in classified sites etc.
Stock & Forex Trading
Stock trading & forex trading is a very lucrative way to make money for those who has good idea of the market.online trading There are number of free or paid courses available on internet that can train you for online trading. You can even read newspaper like Economic times or watch TV channels like CNBC to become more expert in the field. Its risky to enter into this market without sufficient knowledge. 16. Earn money from your smartphone There are various apps that can make you some small money by doing & completing some simple tasks on your Smartphone.earn_from_smartphone There are at least 10 apps that can earn you some extra income in the range of $100-$150 a month. You have to take simple surveys, complete offers by signup on other websites, play games, watch videos etc. We will show you the list of these apps after you signup for our training.
Sell photos online
This is another use of your smartphone. You can take high quality images of nature, places, people, things, dishes, homes etc. & sell them online. There are number of big sites like Shutterstock, Fotolia, , iStockPhoto, Photobucket where you can submit your photos. Whenever some customer wants to purchase your photos, you will get paid as per the price you fix. You can get paid multiple time for the same photos.
Sell old stuff on OLX or Quikr
I am sure there may be number of things in your home that are lying unused for months & if you take little efforts, you can earn some good money.sell_old_stuff You just need to do 2 things, i.e. find out all the items that you are no longer using, take high quality photos of these items from different angles & list these items on OLX & Quikr for sale. Not only this, you can also ask your friends & relatives for selling their old stuff. You can help them selling these items & make some commission. So these 18 ways can provide a perfect answer for your query ‘how to earn money online” & yes, you can shoot an email to us in case of assistance. Get ready for more info in future !
Here are twenty forex trading tips that you can use to avoid disasters and maximize your potential in the currency exchange market. 1. Know yourself. Define your risk tolerance carefully. Understand your needs. To profit in trading, you must recognize the markets. To recognize the markets, you must first know and recognize yourself. The first step of gaining self-awareness is ensuring that ... Day trading 101 – get to grips with trading stocks or forex live using a demo account first, they will give you invaluable trading tips. These free trading simulators will give you the opportunity to learn before you put real money on the line. They also offer hands-on training in how to pick stocks. Trading forex (currencies) in India is popular among residents. While recommended, forex brokers are not required to become authorised by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) to accept residents of India as customers. The Securities and Exchange Board of India is the financial regulatory body in India. Website: https://www.sebi.gov.in. We recommend India residents also follow the ... Top 7 Ways to Transfer Money to India. How Forex Trading Works? The act of buying and selling foreign currency for making money is known as forex trading. The process of forex trading is completely online. Forex Trading is same as that of equity trading. In equity trading rate of share matters while in forex trading exchange rate matters. You can buy or sell currency pair as per your ... Dhaniya trading range for the day is 6513-6749. By Kedia Advisory By Kedia Advisory Sell Zinc Nov 2020 @ 210.00 SL 212.00 TGT 207.80-206.40.MCX By Kedia Advisory The Top 10 Tips for Forex Trading in India. Do you want to know the best tips for forex trading in India? Of Course you do. In this article, we will explain in detail the best way to trade forex profitably in India. MS Dhoni is arguably the best captain in the world, but that does not guarantee that he will never lose a match. Similarly, however experienced a forex trader is, there is no ... Forex trading in India cannot be done at any land-based location as the only online forex trading is available. Unlike the stock market which has opening and closing times, the forex market remains open throughout the day as traders trade currencies across all time zones, five days of the week. Different Ways to Trade Forex; Brief Guide to Trading Forex. Step #1: Select a Currency Pair. Step ...
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